Iain Johnston and I have written a short piece over on The Monkey Cage blog. Using new data from Japan’s Coast Guard, we identify a significant decline in the frequency of Chinese patrols around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and explore some reasons for this change in behavior. Read the story here.
Hainan’s New Fishing Rules: A Preliminary Analysis
Hainan’s provincial government has become an increasingly prominent and active player in the South China Sea disputes. In November 2012, Hainan’s People’s Congress issued new regulations on coastal border security that raised questions about freedom for navigation in the South China Sea (see analysis hereand here). In November 2013, the same legislative body issued “measures” (banfa, 办法) …
Case Studies and Formal Models
I’ve just finished a paper with a colleague from graduate school, Peter Lorentzen, and a talented graduate student at UC Berkeley, Jack Paine. In the paper, we explore how case studies (and in particular the process tracing of causal mechanisms) can be used to evaluate formal models. Here’s the abstract: In the ongoing debate about …
Xi Jinping and China’s Maritime Disputes
At the end of July, the Chinese Communist Party’s ruling Politburo held a special study session on the nation’s growing maritime power, which has helped cause controversy with several neighboring states. Official media reports about the meeting emphasized a speech by President Xi Jinping that repeated the main policy themes from the recent 18th Party …
China Has Not (Yet) Changed Its Position on Nuclear Weapons
In a recent op-ed in the New York Times, nuclear expert James Actonsuggests that China may be changing its nuclear doctrine. The principal basis for his argument is the absence of a specific repetition of China’s “no first-use” policy in the latest edition of Beijing’s bi-annual white paper on defense. Acton, however, misreads the recent white paper and draws the …
The Long Littoral Project: South China Sea
The Center for Naval Analysis has released another volume from its “Long Littoral” project, which examines changing maritime dynamics in the Indo-Pacific from the Arabian Sea to the Sea of Japan. This volume looks at recent developments in the South China Sea. I authored one of the three chapters, “Growing Competition in the South China …
Xi Jinping and the PLA
In recent weeks, Western media has characterized Xi Jinping as a more assertive and forceful leader of China’s armed forces, including the People’s Liberation Army and People’s Armed Police. The Wall Street Journal, for example, described Xi as “as a strong military leader at home and embracing a more hawkish worldview.” Similarly, the New York Times described Xi …
Nuclear Weapons in U.S.-China Relations
This past year, I joined a working group sponsored by the Project on Nuclear Initiatives at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. We were tasked with thinking about the role of nuclear weapons in U.S.-China relations in the coming two decades. The working group’s report explored the challenges posed by China’s continued force modernization …
Hainan’s New Maritime Regulations: An Update
On January 1, 2013, Hainan’s new maritime security regulations entered into force. Entitled Regulations for the Management of Coastal Border Security and Public Order in Hainan Province, they replaced those lastissued in 1999. When the new regulations were first announced in November they attracted a great deal of attention because they appeared to authorize broad powers to interfere …
Hainan’s New Maritime Regulations: A Preliminary Analysis
Hainan’s People’s Congress recently approved new regulations for the management of public order for coastal and border defense. Part of the regulations authorizes public security units to inspect, detain or expel foreign ships illegally entering waters under Hainan’s jurisdiction. As a result,initial reporting and analysis indicated that the regulations may provide a basis for China to challenge freedom …