Following the conclusion of the , a new , the top leadership body of the Chinese Communist Party, has been named. has revolved around whether or how China’s new leaders will pursue much-needed economic and political reforms. An equally important question concerns the future direction of Chinese foreign policy under Xi Jinping. To repeat Zhou Enlai’s assessment of …
Sinica podcast
During a recent trip to Beijing, I met up with Kaiser Kuo, one of the hosts of the outstanding Sinica podcast. We discussed recent developments in China’s maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas, as well as the state of the Chinese navy. You can listen to the podcast here. I had so …
Redefining the Status Quo
The most striking feature of China’s behavior in its maritime disputes this year has been efforts to redefine the status quo. In its disputes with the Philippines and Japan, China has used the presence of its civilian maritime law enforcement agencies to create new facts on the water to strengthen China’s sovereignty claims. Before April …
The Dangerous Math of Chinese Island Disputes
Today, I published a piece in the Asian Wall Street Journal on the current standoff between China and Japan over the Senkaku Islands. Reviewing China’s behavior in its past territorial disputes, I argue that the danger of escalation is much greater than is commonly believed. The piece can be viewed here. You can also email me …
Doubling Down in the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands?
High-ranking diplomats from China and Japan met in Shanghai recently to hold consultations over the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands. Zhang Zhijun, vice minister of foreign affairs, met with his counterpart, Chikao Kawai. Details of the talks were not disclosed, but the continuation of consultations that started in September is important if the two sides seek …
Easing China-Japan Island Tensions
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs recently announced that Luo Zhaohui, Director-General of the Department of Asian Affairs, had made an unpublicized visit to Japan. The purpose of his trip was to prepare for the next round of talks over the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands at the vice ministerial level, similar to those heldin late September. Overall, this …
Something to Talk About, Again
Earlier, I wrote about why China believes that a past consensus existed with Japan over deferring resolution of the dispute over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands. A colleague recently alerted me to a new Chinese source that further illuminates the discussion of the issue during the talks on normalizing diplomatic relations in 1972 between Kakuei Tanaka and Zhou Enlai. The source is a …
Something to Talk About in the East China Sea
The diplomatic stand off between China and Japan over the Senkaku / Diaoyu Islands has entered its third week without any signs of de-escalation. Positions on both sides have hardened. Each government has released detailed accounts of the bases for their claims (, ). Talks earlier in the week between diplomats in Beijing yielded only an …
Drawing Lines in the Water
In the past few days, China has launched a broad and well coordinated media campaign to express opposition to the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the While tensions rise between Japan and China in the East China Sea, an important development may have been overlooked. (Diaoyu) Islands from a private Japanese citizen. The campaign …
The Perils of Predicting Chinese Politics
In recent weeks, rumors about the outcome of the 18thCongress of the Chinese Communist Party—expected in a month or two—and the composition of such key leadership bodies as the next Politburo Standing Committee, . At the moment, conventional wisdom holds that its membership will be reduced from nine to seven, with the crucial portfolio for law and …