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M. Taylor Fravel

International Security, China, and East Asia

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Maritime Awareness Project

Is China’s Military Ready for War?

In an essay for Foreign Affairs, I examine the impact purges in the PLA high command on its combat readiness. The essay is available here.

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August 1, 2025

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China: Balancing the US, Increasing Global Influence

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About

I’m the Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor in the Department of Political Science and Director of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. I study international relations, with a focus on international security, China, and East Asia.

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Recent Research

China: Balancing the US, Increasing Global Influence

Technological Competition and the US-China Rivalry

China’s Global Security Initiative at Two

Estimating China’s Defense Spending

China’s Potential Lessons from Ukraine for Conflict Over Taiwan

Two Paths: Why States Join or Avoid China’s Belt and Road Initiative

The Dynamics of an Entangled Security Dilemma: China’s Changing Nuclear Posture

How Much Risk Should the United States Run in the South China Sea?

China’s Military Strategy for a ‘New Era’

China Engages the Artic

Stormy Seas: The South China Sea in US-China Relations

China’s “World-Class” Military Ambitions: Origins and Implications

China and the Border Dispute with India After 1962

Dangerous Confidence: Chinese Views of Nuclear Escalation

Active Defense: China’s Military Strategy Since 1949

Shifts in Warfare and Party Unity: Explaining China’s Changes in Military Strategy

Threading the Needle: The South China Sea Disputes and U.S.-China Relations

Explaining China’s Escalation over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands

China’s Changing Approach to Military Strategy: The Science of Military Strategy from 2001 to 2013

Assuring Assured Retaliation: China’s Nuclear Strategy and U.S.-China Strategic Stability

China’s New Military Strategy: ‘Winning Informationized Local Wars

Projecting Strategy: The Myth of Chinese Counter-Intervention

The PLA and National Security Decisionmaking: Insights from China’s Territorial and Maritime Disputes

Things Fall Apart: Maritime Disputes and China’s Regional Diplomacy

Territorial and Maritime Boundary Disputes in Asia

U.S. Policy in the South China Sea Disputes since 1995

China’s Strategy in the South China Sea

Maritime Security in the South China Sea and the Competition over Maritime Rights

Economic Growth, Regime Insecurity, and Military Strategy: Explaining the Rise of Non-Combat Operations in China

China Views India’s Rise: Deepening Cooperation, Managing Differences

China’s Assertive Behavior – Part Two: The Maritime Periphery

International Relations Theory and China’s Rise: Assessing China’s Potential for Territorial Expansion

China’s Search for Assured Retaliation: Explaining the Evolution of China’s Nuclear Strategy

The Limits of Diversion: Rethinking Internal and External Conflict

China’s Search for Military Power

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